TERM EXTENSION AT ALL COST: SCENARIOS FOR 2010 (from the presentation by Teresita Quintos Deles)

[Andrea Lizares Si (HS'73,AB '78)]

Now that GMA has done the unprecedented by running as Congresswoman of Pampanga, also after the declaration of Martial law in Maguindanao, her intention to remain in power beyond 2010 glares us in the face. The President's intentions are evident in many other things she has been doing.

After GMA had been in Malacanang for seven years, the FSGO came up with "SEVEN YEARS, SEVEN CURSES UNDER GMA." (FSGO is a group of 80 former senior government officials from the time of Macapagal to the present.)

THE STATE OF THE NATION ACCORDING TO FSGO, 25 July, 2008

a. A country unable to feed its own people
b. Worsening poverty and increasing disparity between the rich and the poor
c. Deteriorating basic social services essential to the survival and welfare of the Filipino people
d. National government gripped by a metastatic cancer of corruption
e. Wanton abuse of presidential prerogatives
f. An illegitimate president
g. A nation robbed of its dignity, unity and future

There are, at present, 6 STORMS BLOWING OVER THE COUNTRY

a. Mindanao Conflict
b. Financial Turmoil
c. Governance Crisis
d. Human Rights Crisis
e. Political Storm
f. Crisis of Citizenship

FOR THESE REASONS…

We cannot afford to have GMA stay even one day beyond 30 June 2010

GMA cannot afford to give up power for several reasons:
a. Protection from prosecution
b. Protection and perpetuation of financial, kleptocratic, dynastic empire

POLITICAL STORM

Because GMA cannot afford to give up power, there will be unceasing attempts to extend the term of GMA by all means possible. What are the modes that have been identified?

6 MODES OF TERM EXTENSION
a. Option A: Charter Change through ConAss
b. Option A1: Charter Change after 2010
c. Option B: Emergency Rule
d. Option C: Buying the Next President
e. Option D: Failure of Elections
f. Option E: Transitional revolutionary government

All tracks are currently in motion, they are parallel and intertwining…One does not exclude another.

Charter Change is of course the default option, with Option A being CHA-CHA THROUGH CONASS. Preferred Cha-Cha mode: ConAss “voting jointly ”¾ of total of 261 legislators (combined Senate and HOR), with entry of new PL representatives: 220 out of 293

- Senate Reso 811 signed by 23 Senators
R 1109 convening ConAss “upon a vote of ¾ of all members of Congress (no proposed amendments) Passed viva voce on 26 May, 3 days before recess
Objective: “justiciable case” to raise to Supreme Court
2 previous attempts dismissed by Supreme Court

Next milestone: to convene ConAss – adopt rules with majority vote of both Houses of Congress

OPTION A1 - CONASS AFTER 2010

“Justiciable case” only upon adoption of actual amendment. The likelihood of getting the needed ¾ vote to convene ConAss is diminishing by the day so OPTION A1 is CONASS AFTER 2010.

The “Putin Formula” (This is how the Russian strongman Putin stayed in power)

Lacking time to complete ChaCha, the present moves to convene the Constituent Assembly may be to secure a Supreme Court ruling that the House of Representatives can convene ConAss even without the conformity of the Senate. For the 2010 elections, GMA runs for the position of representative of the District of Lubao, she wins handily, then is elected Speaker of the House of Representatives.

Immediately after elections – the House convenes the ConAss without the Senate and then changes to the parliamentary system. GMA is elected Prime Minister while the 2010 President-elect remains as ceremonial President, VP as speaker. This option needs a Supreme Court decision allowing ConAss even without support of the Senate. The option also needs a compliant President-elect.

Electoral challenge: David and Gloriath

OPTION B:EMERGENCY RULE

WHAT’S IN PLACE? Capacitated PNP under Puno’s DILG; Ascendance of PMA Class ‘78; Expanded/politicized scope of ISAFP; Proliferation of Retired Military in Key Executive Positions; Laying the Ground/Mind-Conditioning.

CAPACITATED PNP.

We see an expanded and strengthened Special Action Force (SAF). This elite force has increased in number from the original 400 to an estimated 5,000. The SAF participate in accelerated, high-profile drills: e.g., anti-terrorism rescue operations in MRT, monthly uphill march in full battle gear (Baras), etc. It was the SAF that led the assault when the Magdalo rebels in the Armed Forced occupied the Manila Penninsula. This Special Action Force participates in joint exercises with the US military and 200 are now engaged in Basilan to develop combat capacity and espirit d’ corps. It is also the SAF that provides security to Congress (2 Houses)

There have been sizeable budget increases to achieve the desired 1:500 ratio of police to citizens, but police personnel are not allocated according to population. Instead, most new recruits are to Metro Manila. Because of investments in equipment, the PNP is also now better equipped than the AFP. 26 V-150’s purchased/refurbished from AFP are not so much for combat but for intimidation. The PNP also has a number of light, sleek APC’s for urban use and state-of-the art surveillance equipment (based on the fact that there were all expense paid trips to Rohde and Schwartz in Munich).

In 2005, PAOCC, the Presidential Anti-organized Crime Commission had the highest allocation of intelligence funds (excluding Office of the President).

The National Peace and Order Council (NPOC) was reorganized under the DILG through Executive Order 739. The NPOC has the same composition as the National Security Council (NSC) except for the Chair – DILG Secretary instead of the President. Functions of the NPOC includes function to “initiate and/or oversee the convergence and the orchestration of internal security operations and efforts of civil authorities and agencies, military and police.” The National Peace and Order Council is organized from local to national levels

ASCENDANCE OF CLASS ‘78

Background: There is an existing PMA practice of classes adopting politicians as honorary classmates, with the politician and his/her adoptive class mutually taking care of each other. Class ‘78 is GMA’s adoptive class.

In May, 2009, in an unprecedented move, GMA cut short the terms of office of both COS Alexander Yano (Class ‘76) and Deputy COS Cardozo Luna (Class ’75) – both highly respected professional soldiers. Yano and Luna were appointed to diplomatic posts, Yano as Ambassador to Brunei, Luna as Ambassador to the Netherlands. (In 1972, Marcos appointed Gen Rafael Ileto, who opposed Oplan Sagittarius, as Ambassador to Iran.)

COS Yano’s and Dep COS Luna’s retirement from active service advanced the appointment of Ibrado (Class ’76) who is due to retire in March, 2010. Ibrado's retirement is widely expected to be advanced so as to give room for Bangit (Class ’78, former PSG head, former ISAPF chief, currently head of the Philippine Army – 75% of AFP) who is next in line and targeted to be in place for 2010 elections. PMA
Class ‘77 is being skipped

22 members of PMA Class '78 are presently occupying sensitive positions in the Armed Forces of the Philippines:

In GHQ: J2 (Intelligence) V Martir, J3 (Operations) Holganza, J6 (Communications and Electronics/Commel) J Martir, J7 (Civil-Military Relations), DND-Bids and Awards Committee (BAC), Chief of Engineers, ISAFP Prestoza, Presidential Security Group
Service commands: Philippine Army Bangit, Air Force Rabena, Navy Angue, Marines Sabban. In the Infantry divisions: 6 out of 10 are led by members of Class '78. In the PNP, the PNP-NCR Chief is Rosales (Class ’78 president and known GMA boy) who was appointed after his predecessor Bataoil was moved to a newly created position in the north. Current PNP Chief Versoza (Class ’76), has a reputation for engaging in shoot-outs and being cool under fire but he is due to retire in December, 2010. It is expected that his retirement will be advanced.

Also a member of Class ’78 - CIDG Director Castaneda (Criminal Investigation and Detection Group)


Expanded/Politicized Scope of ISAFP

EO 73 created the Energy Contingency Task Force (ECTF) under the National Food and Energy Council (NFEC). The ECTF includes Intelligence Service of the AFP (ISAFP), placing it under the Office of the President therefore effectively outside the chain of command. The function of the ECTF is to monitor the food and energy situation, including political developments, in the face of possible food riots. The task force is composed of almost all members of Cabinet and it is headed by ES directly reporting to the President. The current head of ISAFP, Prestoza, is the former head of the Presidential Security Group

Sample of ISAFP undertakings under GMA: Wiretapping of Garci, San Mateo raid which carted away Sen Legarda’s evidences on 2004 election fraud (2005), wooing of Mancao as witness vs. Sen Lacson in Dacer case (2008), purported smear drive vs SOJ Gonzales (2009)

Heightened surveillance of political opposition and even within AFP, including ISAFP

RETIRED MILITARY IN KEY EXECUTIVE POSITIONS

At least 50 retired military and police are occupying key positions in this administration. In the Cabinet are: ES Ermita, DOTC Ebdane, DOTC Mendoza, PMS Esperon, OPAPP Razon, DOE Reyes. In Diplomatic positions are: Cimatu, Santiago, Abu, Senga, Yano, Luna, etc. Retired military and police have also been appointed to position in the LTO, PDEA, SBMA, PPO, as Postmaster General, or as undersecretaries.

The operational significance of these appointments is minimal (with obvious exceptions) but the appointment of retired military and police officers ensures -
minimal resistance to emergency rule from the Cabinet and a message to those in active service: Cooperation will be rewarded.

LAYING THE GROUND/MIND-CONDITIONING

There are now 70 checkpoints in Metro Manila (from 38 before appointment of Rosales), including 12 in Manila alone. Reportedly, over 200 checkpoints are planned in Luzon.

There is an amnesty for unlicensed firearms and easy gun registration. This happened before Martial law so when Martial Law was declared, locating and confiscating the guns was easy.

There was a series of bomb episodes in Metro Manila: DA, Ombudsman, One Burgundy Plaza. The bombs had high C-4 component but were without blasting caps. C-4 is an expensive bomb component that is available only through the military. Successive bomb explosions in Cotabato, Jolo, and Iligan merited mixed signals from national government

Appointment of Ebdane (former Chief PNP and ISAFP head) as Acting SILG

Excessive security preparations for 27 July SONA


OPTION B:EMERGENCY RULE

Emergency Rule can be declared if there is a basis for such a declaration. This can be provided by orchestrated bombings, civil disorder, and/or failure of elections. Emergency Rule is an option that is not likely to succeed but the attempt itself will cause damage that the country cannot afford.

OPTION C:BUYING 2010 PRESIDENT

GMA will fund the campaign (may bonus pa) of her candidate. Since association with GMA is widely known to be the kiss of death, it is possible that the administration will set up a decoy candidate. The administration will also try to divide and therefore destroy the opposition.

Why is the next President important to GMA? The next president will have the power to protect GMA from prosecution. GMA also wants a president who will agree to charter change after the 2010 election.

OPTION D:FAILURE OF ELECTIONS

There are many controversies where the Smartmatic poll automation contract is concerned. Smartmatic's actual capacity is being questioned. There are allegations of manipulation by “big people in high places.” Furthermore, Smartmatic is a foreign company, therefore the software to be used is completely in the hands of a foreign company. One may also raise questions regarding the actual capacity of COMELEC to direct and oversee automated elections. Not only is the electorate unprepared for automated elections, there is no clear back-up plan. Presently, we are faced with the spectre of Election Day disasters: power outage, equipment bog down, incorrect filling up of ballots, delays in voting – long lines, people give up
Result: no president, vice-president, senators, congresspersons, LGUs, only Chief Justice (Puno retirement in May, 2010)

TRANSITIONAL REVOLUTIONARY GOVERNMENT
This is the Brain-child of National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales. The revolutionary government will have a Reformist Transition Council of State (RETRACOS), a Military-backed transition government patterned after President Cory’s revolutionary government. The RETRACOS will be composed of the leadership of the House of Representatives and the Senate, the Church, and GMA (4 members). It will be headed by the Chief Justice but GMA will retain vast powers of GMA; e.g., remains commander-in-chief of AFP. The objective of the Transitional Revolutionary Government will still be to achieve electoral reform and charter change to parliamentary form of government before 2010 elections

This idea has been publicly rejected by other Malacanang officials (e.g., Ermita, Claudio, and Remonde) but Gonzales, accompanied by Jesuit Fr. Intengan, continues to go around selling the idea: according to media reports – Bps. Capalla, De Dios Pueblos, Talamayan, Villena; and KME Bishops Tobias, Iniguez; and CJ Puno. Furthermore, according to Former SND Avelino Cruz: Gonzales does not do anything without the approval of the President

AS WINDOW FOR TERM EXTENSION NARROWS

ConAss “voting jointly” is no longer likely as Cong-Asses are no longer likely to go along because if the move does not succeed, their chances in the 2010 elections will be affected. Buying the next President is also growing increasingly dim. Noli has distanced himself from Malacanang. Gibo is not figuring in surveys. There are dnough transactional candidates but can they be trusted to protect her? Even worse for GMA, will they agree to turn over power to her through a shift to the parliamentary system?

AS THE WINDOW FOR TERM EXTENSION NARROWS
The choice is narrowing down to –
Emergency rule, possibly in combination with - Failure of elections
The newest track: RETRACOS

For international acceptance, Charter Change to shift to the parliamentary system and allow GMA's election as Prime Minister is necessary for Gloria to remain in power.

There is no term limit for a Prime Minister so GMA will enjoy perpetual immunity from prosecution.

AND SHE SHALL RULE FOREVER AND EVER…

WHAT MUST WE DO?

Bring every option out into the light of day, place it under public scrutiny
Insist that all potential players state their position, make public their stand on the different options

Resist in all legal and non-violent ways

The ultimate authority resides in us, the people..

We must express with passion, commitment and vehemence our outrage at any attempt to extend her term even one day beyond June 30, 2010.

From Ibasura Primer on Charter Change
KAYA BA NATIN?
(Crisis of Citizenship)

TindigNATION!

Now Na! -

For another take on Gloria's plans, read the Article "Gloria Forever" by Antonio Abaya.

(This presentation was made by Teresita Quintos Deles to a group of LCC students sometime in October, 2009)

[Sophie Lizares-Bodegon (HS Class '71)]

Thanks, Nening! This is good, really complements Antonio Abaya's chilling article.

[Katherine Paco]

It's really sad how the Philippine political system has fallen so deep and low.

Allow me to add my 2 cents... God allowed His people (the Israelites) to suffer under a bad leader/king when they turned their backs on Him. But when they as a people called upon His name AND repented AND turn from their wicked ways, He once again blessed them and gave them good Kings.

I pray that the country prays together and be united in their petitions for good, honest, God fearing political leaders whose hearts' desires are to serve the people and not enrich their own pockets.

[Sophie Lizares-Bodegon (HS Class '71)]

Analysis by journalist Toto Causing

An analysis, in the wake of the Ampatuan murders, by Bertini "Toto" Causing, a member of the board of the National Press Club of the Philippines and also legal consultant for the National Press Club. Mr Causing is columnist both of Hataw and Police Files Tonight. With the kind permission of Paul Brinkley-Rogers.

ANALYSIS

You must know that Norberto Gonzales as Defense Secretary is a "terror" operator and if he is to work with political operator Ronaldo Puno, they become a dreaded pair.

Remember that Gonzales came from National Intelligence Security Agency, from where came the Vidal Doble who taped Garcillano's talks with Gloria. Also remember that Puno (the bad one) was instrumental in making Miriam Santiago lose to FVR and in Garci operations in Mindanao.

You must also know that before the Ampatuan massacre, there were hell-bent planning sessions on how Gloria could possibly hold over, de facto or de jure.

They were looking at how they can foment war in Muslim areas to have a justification for sinister plots.

Instead of launching war against MILF and MNLF which is expensive, what Gonzales did was to make "chismis" circulating between two possible warring clans. The timing was perfect because Datu Andal Sr. was so worried how he can stay in power because of the three-term limit. Andal Sr. even went to the Comelec in the Province of Maguindanao to ask what should he do to enable him to run again for the 2010 elections. A "bobo" Comelec official advised him to take a leave. Another Comelec official advised him to resign. Confused, Andal Sr. went to Malacanang and asked an Arroyo confidante what to do. And Andal was told that the only way for him to hold on to power is to prevent elections there from happening. And he was advised to do what is necessary. I do not know what was the advice; but I surmise that he was egged on not to give in to the Mangudadatus who were hell bent on grabbing power from him. In short, "binatirya" or "tsinismis patalikod ang mga Mangudadatu kay Andal na aagawin ang poder sa kanila." And once the power is taken over, the Mangudadatus would take revenge for the earlier raids done on them resulting in seizure of firearms.

Obssesed with desire to keep power revved up by "chismis", the Ampatuans harbored deep hatred and extreme fear of losing power. And to ensure that no election shall occur, the killings should be done with extreme brutality to justify "martial law," a condition when no election can be held in the province. They were only looking at killing and burying to nowhere the Mangudadatus and families so that they would only be recorded as missing and would be charged against the rebels or Abu Sayyaf, not thinking they would be including 30 journalists in their plan for they did not think that Mangudadatu would ask for the help of media men. And if there would be martial law, the Ampatuans stay in power under the hold-over principle. But their game plot failed during the execution. Thank God: before they knew it, Toto Mangudadatu was able to know the abduction because his wife was able to call him up, prompting Toto Mangudadatu to call for Army assistance; the soldiers responded quick enough that forced the killers to escape even though the other victims were not yet buried, leading to the discovery of the plan; thus, the execution failed. The original plot was just to make it appear that the victims disappeared mysteriously so that it can be blamed to heightened rebellion that would justify attacks on MILF which, in turn, would justify martial law.

Until here, I believe I have answered now the question why it should be as brutal as this. It was the Ampatuans who did the act and planned the act. The Gloria government only happened to have benefited from it to justify martial rule.

What would be the net effect when martial law gains momentum in Maguindanao? It will embolden the Gloria machines to do the same in other Muslim provinces: (a) Wahab Akbar's family vs Gerry Salappudin's in Basilan; (b) Sakur Tan clan vs Tupay Loong clan in Sulu; (c) Jaafar clan vs opponents in Tawi-Tawi; (d) Dimaporo clan in Lanao Norte against a challenging clan; and (e) Many clans in Lanao Sur.

If Norberto Gonzales would have his way, he wanted all of them to fight each other to justify martial law in the rest of Muslim provinces.

Remember that the total number of votes in these provinces is substantially big enough to cause suspension of proclamation of winners in Presidential, Vice-Presidential and Senatorial races.

So that when proclamation cannot be had and it will be aggravated and prolonged by creative petitions and protests to be filed before the Comelec, the Speaker of the House (Gloria) would act as Acting President. Why? Since there would be no president, vice president and senators who would be proclaimed, the Speaker takes over under the Constitution. Gloria would argue that the 12 present senators cannot choose a Senate President because it needs at least 13 votes to elect the Senate President.

Another plus or bonus for them: the House of Representatives will approve to extend martial law by means of them voting together with the Senators where the senator's vote is only one. A dummy petition shall be filed to question the act of "voting jointly" by means of outnumbering the Senators; and hoping the Gloria-appointees- dominated Supreme Court would rule that "voting jointly" means lumping together the senators and the congressmen and each of them has only ONE VOTE. And when the Supreme Court would go Gloria's way, they would now implement House Resolution 1109 calling for the senators and congressmen to "vote jointly" for a CON-ASS to pave the way for a parliamentary government. This PLUS or BONUS may happen before or after the 2010 elections. If it happens after elections, the picture that you would see is that the leading candidates for president, vice-president and senators cannot be proclaimed because their margin of leads can still be overturned by the total votes in areas where voting would be deferred till eternity by Martial Law.

So that this is a GRIM POSSIBILITY.

Patriotically yours,

Toto Causing

--

An earlier e-mail to Mr Brinkley-Rogers by Mr Causing, which first appeared at a Pinoy discussion group online.


Please feel free to circulate my analysis as you wish. I do not have any reason for me to be afraid of getting known as the author of this piece. To make this known the farthest it can and to the largest number of people possible, the better it is for the Philippines and the Filipinos.

This analysis becomes all the more necessary to be known because of the falsity and illogical premises relied on in placing Maguindanao province under the state of martial law. The manifestations displayed yesterday by Gloria & her minions show burning intention to pursue martial law are getting bolder. It now appears to be bordering on clear and present danger to democracy and the Filipino people.

Obama and Hillary must know this to warn Gloria not to proceed with the sinister plot.

Why will the Gloria cliche claim there is rebellion while stating at the same time in the premises of martial law proclamation that the territories being held by the rebel Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) shall be respected? To make this clear, let me quote the proclamation: "Sec. 1: There is hereby declared a state of martial law in the province of Maguindanao except for the identified areas of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front as referred to in the implementing operational guidelines of the GRP-MILF agreement on the General Cessation of Hostilities. "

Moreover, MILF has been there existing and campaigning actively for more than a decade now yet in not one period in the past has martial law been proclaimed. In other words, it is very clear in the proclamation that the Gloria Arroyo Government is not referring to the MILF as the reason of rebellion that necessitates martial law.

By deduction, it means that the Gloria administration is treating, no matter how illogical, the massacre of about 20 women, two lady lawyers and 32 journalists as an act of rebellion.

As such, they are treating the suspected perpetrators of the goriest-ever massacre as "rebels." True, Department of Justice Secretary Agnes Devanadera announced that the charges they were filing against the Ampatuans are "rebellion." This was confirmed when television reports showed interviews of Army officers stating that they were arresting the Ampatuans for rebellion.

Is this not out of syntax when the purpose of the brutal killings were not to topple the duly-constituted government?

Is this not revolting to conscience to treat them as rebels when it is very clear there has been no intention to deprive the government of the right to assert authority in any place in Maguindanao?

Is it not clear that the purpose of the massacre was only to scare out or eliminate possible opponents in the upcoming elections for governor of the province in May of 2010?

Is it not clear that the Ampatuans had a clear intention to run for the elective posts up for grabs in that elections and as such there is no intention to deprive the national government to exercise authority in Maguindanao?

Is it not clear that rebellion is an offense against the government only?

Is it not clear that the massacre as committed, assuming to have been committed by the Ampatuans, is an offense against the persons of the victims, that the state's interest in giving justice to massacre victims is only to keep its moral obligation to keep the peace and assuage the revolting conscience?

In sum, it is very clear that there is no rebellion.

And the fact that the Gloria minions are insisting that there is rebellion and in fact arrested the Ampatuans on rebellion charges means my analysis is jibing with the clear intention to place Maguindanao under martial law to achieve the purpose of foiling the holding of elections in this place.

The situation of danger against Democracy and the People is CLEAR AND PRESENT.

So please, Sir Paul, disseminate to the largest possible audience my analysis along with this email message of mine to you.

Patriotically yours,

Toto Causing

[manuel radislao]

Ma'am Deles' words did not really register in my consciousness during her talk at LCC Little Theater a couple of months ago . But with the events lately and hearing the news about the developments on Proclamation 1959 would inform us of the subtle plans of the present administration. The signs are gradually unfolding... I could only shudder at the thought of this shameless president who would do everything to extricate herself from all this mess.. Options B and D are indeed possible if we dont move now. The talk of Atty Andrea last night(The History and Sociology classes of Mr. Navarro and I invited her to talk on the political scenario now) only
affirmed my conviction that indeed we should be involved now if we dont want to have our people to suffer . A chilling thought indeed if we dont do anything. Ma'am Deles' article should be read by all.

[Andrea Lizares Si (HS'73,AB '78)]

Manny, I have a copy of Ging Deles' presentation and can present it to classes in LCC.

manuel radislao said:

Ma'am Deles' words did not really register in my consciousness during her talk at LCC Little Theater a couple of months ago . But with the events lately and hearing the news about the developments on Proclamation 1959 would inform us of the subtle plans of the present administration. The signs are gradually unfolding... I could only shudder at the thought of this shameless president who would do everything to extricate herself from all this mess.. Options B and D are indeed possible if we dont move now. The talk of Atty Andrea last night(The History and Sociology classes of Mr. Navarro and I invited her to talk on the political scenario now) only
affirmed my conviction that indeed we should be involved now if we dont want to have our people to suffer . A chilling thought indeed if we dont do anything. Ma'am Deles' article should be read by all.